Defending my predictions

Under challenge from Lord Sam of Winchester I want to make clear a couple of things about my predictions.

1) I recognise how wide open the 2008 Six Nations is. I did point out that I thought Scotland could finish anywhere from 1st-6th and I stand by that. I'd also say that while I can't see France or England finishing 6th or Italy winning it, I can see most of the other sides in the same boat - in short, I don't really know what is going to happen.

2) I've picked Scotland for second on the basis that I think this is the strongest Six Nations side we've ever had - and starting with Paterson on the bench suggests I might be right. (It's a bold move, but the strength in depth of the squad suggests it might be the right call - the wings are better than he is, and he hasn't played much at fly half).

3) By picking the way I have, I am not ruling out other sides doing better than expected. All I am suggesting is that, in France and Wales (and to a lesser extent, Italy) the change in coaching set-up may prove too difficult to allow the players to gel fast enough. England have lost the experience of big game players but the confidence from reaching the RWC final, the return of Dave Strettle and the inclusion of a certain Tongan winger suggest they will still be strong. Ireland are the most difficult to judge. Despite 3 Triple Crowns in four years, they still have not won the tournament and the poor show at the World Cup suggests they are not going to win it this year. Although this might prove an incentive, I don't think they're the side they used to be, and their chance has gone.

So, there will probably be a couple of surprises along the way, but the best advice is probably to expect the home sides (except Italy) to win, with maybe a couple of exceptions. Looking forward to it though.