Week 2 - Predictor

I got two out of three last weekend - really should have had more faith in the Welsh boys! I'm going to stick to my overall predictor, and go with Scotland, England and France to triumph this weekend.

Wales 17 Scotland 24

Italy 19 England 32
France 26 Ireland 12

I've gone with Scotland because, despite a lot of failings in the team last weekend (and persisting with Dan Parks at 10!) there were signs that we are not that far off hitting the right buttons. We just need to pick a final pass - and maybe not defend quite so badly. Wales will be buoyant after victory at Twickenham, but they were woeful in the first half and should've been well out of it by then.

Despite their loss at home, England should easily have enough to beat the Italians in Rome, and while Ireland scraped their win last weekend, France are a class above them, and will record their second victory on Sunday.

Week 1 – Analysis

The Six Nations is back, and what a weekend to start it all. Ireland sneaked past Italy, but looked rubbish in doing so. Wales caused the upset of the weekend by taking advantage of a poor second-half showing by England. And, in a much anticipated encounter at Murrayfield, the French rose to the occasion while Scotland looked out of their depth.

Ireland 16 Italy 11
Italy performed better than I’d thought they would, and held firm with some hard tackling but ultimately came up short. In my mind, there were no surprises in this Irish side which look well past their best – and unlikely to be in the mix when the honours are handed out this year. While better than their World Cup display, this was, as my good friend Mike pointed out, a performance which was “rusty rather than stale”. A quiet, uninspired, hard-fought win, but nothing to write home about for either side.

England 19 Wales 26
Warren Gatland must have taken advice from Rafa Benitez on his half-time team talk, as this really was the epitome of a game of 2 halves. Trailing 16-6 at the break – and it really should’ve been more – Wales looked out of sorts, and England only needed one more score to put the match beyond any doubt. However, with Jonny out of sorts and the team settling for 3 points when they should have had seven early in the second half, Wales were able to stage a recovery with a wild two minute spell to snatch their first Twickenham win in 20 years. Neither side will be happy with how they played for large parts of the game, but the Welsh will be delighted with the win.

Scotland 6 France 27
A lack of confidence. An inability to contain. A couple of bad decisions (both by the players and by the referee). And a whole lot of rubbish. For a side with four new caps and an expectation that they may be on the wrong side of a Scottish renaissance, France looked as slick and skilful as French sides of the eighties. Confidence seeped through them as they ran from deep and cut through the Scottish tacklers. Contrast that with the disorganisation, the unforced errors and the incompetence of certain members of the Scotland side. A lot of work to be done on the Scottish side but the French can look forward to a home game against a sub-par Irish side, with dreams of the Grand Slam well and truly on.

Week One

Picks for the weekend are as follows (and may not be consistent with original predictions):

Ireland 32 Italy 17
England 25 Wales 20
Scotland 17 France 19

Thinking again about my comments before, I think if Scotland are to do well this year, they may have to beat France. And with France blooding four new caps - including at fly half, c'est posible.

However, the game I think will be close, and the French might nick it. Potential for upsets all over the place this weekend, with Wales looking for a first win in 20 years at Twickenham, France looking inexperienced and Ireland... well, I don't really know. But I've stuck my neck out and gone for Ireland, England and France this weekend.

Defending my predictions

Under challenge from Lord Sam of Winchester I want to make clear a couple of things about my predictions.

1) I recognise how wide open the 2008 Six Nations is. I did point out that I thought Scotland could finish anywhere from 1st-6th and I stand by that. I'd also say that while I can't see France or England finishing 6th or Italy winning it, I can see most of the other sides in the same boat - in short, I don't really know what is going to happen.

2) I've picked Scotland for second on the basis that I think this is the strongest Six Nations side we've ever had - and starting with Paterson on the bench suggests I might be right. (It's a bold move, but the strength in depth of the squad suggests it might be the right call - the wings are better than he is, and he hasn't played much at fly half).

3) By picking the way I have, I am not ruling out other sides doing better than expected. All I am suggesting is that, in France and Wales (and to a lesser extent, Italy) the change in coaching set-up may prove too difficult to allow the players to gel fast enough. England have lost the experience of big game players but the confidence from reaching the RWC final, the return of Dave Strettle and the inclusion of a certain Tongan winger suggest they will still be strong. Ireland are the most difficult to judge. Despite 3 Triple Crowns in four years, they still have not won the tournament and the poor show at the World Cup suggests they are not going to win it this year. Although this might prove an incentive, I don't think they're the side they used to be, and their chance has gone.

So, there will probably be a couple of surprises along the way, but the best advice is probably to expect the home sides (except Italy) to win, with maybe a couple of exceptions. Looking forward to it though.

France line-up at Murrayfield

FRANCE

15 C Heymans (Toulouse)
14 J Malzieu (Cler-Auvergne)
13 F Fritz (Toulouse)
12 D Traille (Biarritz)
11 V Clerc (Toulouse)
10 F Trinh-Duc (Montpellier)
9 J-B Elissalde (Toulouse)
1 L Faure (Sale)
2 W Servat (Toulouse)
3 J Brugnaut (Dax)
4 L Nallet (Castres, capt)
5 L Jacquet (Cler-Auvergne)
6 F Ouedraogo (Montpellier)
7 T Dusautoir (Toulouse)
8 E Vermeulen (Cler-Auvergne)

Replacements: N Mas (Perpignan), D Szarzewski (Stade Fr), A Mela (Albi), J Bonnaire (Cler-Auvergne), M Parra (Bourgoin), D Skrela (Stade Fr), A Rougerie (Cler-Auvergne).

Scotland line-up v France (Sun)

SCOTLAND
15 R Lamont (Sale Sharks)
14 N Walker (Ospreys)
13 N De Luca (Edinburgh)
12 A Henderson (Glasgow)
11 S Webster (Edinburgh)
10 D Parks (Glasgow Warriors)
9 M Blair (Edinburgh)
1 A Jacobsen (Edinburgh)
2 R Ford (Edinburgh)
3 E Murray (Northampton Saints)
4 N Hines (Perpignan)
5 J Hamilton (Leicester Tigers)
6 J White (Sale Sharks, captain)
7 J Barclay (Glasgow)
8 D Callam (Edinburgh)

Replacements: F Thomson (Glasgow), G Kerr (Edinburgh), S MacLeod (Llanelli Scarlets), K Brown (Glasgow), C Cusiter (Perpignan), C Paterson (Gloucester), H Southwell (Edinburgh).