Week 2 - Predictor

I got two out of three last weekend - really should have had more faith in the Welsh boys! I'm going to stick to my overall predictor, and go with Scotland, England and France to triumph this weekend.

Wales 17 Scotland 24

Italy 19 England 32
France 26 Ireland 12

I've gone with Scotland because, despite a lot of failings in the team last weekend (and persisting with Dan Parks at 10!) there were signs that we are not that far off hitting the right buttons. We just need to pick a final pass - and maybe not defend quite so badly. Wales will be buoyant after victory at Twickenham, but they were woeful in the first half and should've been well out of it by then.

Despite their loss at home, England should easily have enough to beat the Italians in Rome, and while Ireland scraped their win last weekend, France are a class above them, and will record their second victory on Sunday.

Week 1 – Analysis

The Six Nations is back, and what a weekend to start it all. Ireland sneaked past Italy, but looked rubbish in doing so. Wales caused the upset of the weekend by taking advantage of a poor second-half showing by England. And, in a much anticipated encounter at Murrayfield, the French rose to the occasion while Scotland looked out of their depth.

Ireland 16 Italy 11
Italy performed better than I’d thought they would, and held firm with some hard tackling but ultimately came up short. In my mind, there were no surprises in this Irish side which look well past their best – and unlikely to be in the mix when the honours are handed out this year. While better than their World Cup display, this was, as my good friend Mike pointed out, a performance which was “rusty rather than stale”. A quiet, uninspired, hard-fought win, but nothing to write home about for either side.

England 19 Wales 26
Warren Gatland must have taken advice from Rafa Benitez on his half-time team talk, as this really was the epitome of a game of 2 halves. Trailing 16-6 at the break – and it really should’ve been more – Wales looked out of sorts, and England only needed one more score to put the match beyond any doubt. However, with Jonny out of sorts and the team settling for 3 points when they should have had seven early in the second half, Wales were able to stage a recovery with a wild two minute spell to snatch their first Twickenham win in 20 years. Neither side will be happy with how they played for large parts of the game, but the Welsh will be delighted with the win.

Scotland 6 France 27
A lack of confidence. An inability to contain. A couple of bad decisions (both by the players and by the referee). And a whole lot of rubbish. For a side with four new caps and an expectation that they may be on the wrong side of a Scottish renaissance, France looked as slick and skilful as French sides of the eighties. Confidence seeped through them as they ran from deep and cut through the Scottish tacklers. Contrast that with the disorganisation, the unforced errors and the incompetence of certain members of the Scotland side. A lot of work to be done on the Scottish side but the French can look forward to a home game against a sub-par Irish side, with dreams of the Grand Slam well and truly on.

Week One

Picks for the weekend are as follows (and may not be consistent with original predictions):

Ireland 32 Italy 17
England 25 Wales 20
Scotland 17 France 19

Thinking again about my comments before, I think if Scotland are to do well this year, they may have to beat France. And with France blooding four new caps - including at fly half, c'est posible.

However, the game I think will be close, and the French might nick it. Potential for upsets all over the place this weekend, with Wales looking for a first win in 20 years at Twickenham, France looking inexperienced and Ireland... well, I don't really know. But I've stuck my neck out and gone for Ireland, England and France this weekend.

Defending my predictions

Under challenge from Lord Sam of Winchester I want to make clear a couple of things about my predictions.

1) I recognise how wide open the 2008 Six Nations is. I did point out that I thought Scotland could finish anywhere from 1st-6th and I stand by that. I'd also say that while I can't see France or England finishing 6th or Italy winning it, I can see most of the other sides in the same boat - in short, I don't really know what is going to happen.

2) I've picked Scotland for second on the basis that I think this is the strongest Six Nations side we've ever had - and starting with Paterson on the bench suggests I might be right. (It's a bold move, but the strength in depth of the squad suggests it might be the right call - the wings are better than he is, and he hasn't played much at fly half).

3) By picking the way I have, I am not ruling out other sides doing better than expected. All I am suggesting is that, in France and Wales (and to a lesser extent, Italy) the change in coaching set-up may prove too difficult to allow the players to gel fast enough. England have lost the experience of big game players but the confidence from reaching the RWC final, the return of Dave Strettle and the inclusion of a certain Tongan winger suggest they will still be strong. Ireland are the most difficult to judge. Despite 3 Triple Crowns in four years, they still have not won the tournament and the poor show at the World Cup suggests they are not going to win it this year. Although this might prove an incentive, I don't think they're the side they used to be, and their chance has gone.

So, there will probably be a couple of surprises along the way, but the best advice is probably to expect the home sides (except Italy) to win, with maybe a couple of exceptions. Looking forward to it though.

France line-up at Murrayfield

FRANCE

15 C Heymans (Toulouse)
14 J Malzieu (Cler-Auvergne)
13 F Fritz (Toulouse)
12 D Traille (Biarritz)
11 V Clerc (Toulouse)
10 F Trinh-Duc (Montpellier)
9 J-B Elissalde (Toulouse)
1 L Faure (Sale)
2 W Servat (Toulouse)
3 J Brugnaut (Dax)
4 L Nallet (Castres, capt)
5 L Jacquet (Cler-Auvergne)
6 F Ouedraogo (Montpellier)
7 T Dusautoir (Toulouse)
8 E Vermeulen (Cler-Auvergne)

Replacements: N Mas (Perpignan), D Szarzewski (Stade Fr), A Mela (Albi), J Bonnaire (Cler-Auvergne), M Parra (Bourgoin), D Skrela (Stade Fr), A Rougerie (Cler-Auvergne).

Scotland line-up v France (Sun)

SCOTLAND
15 R Lamont (Sale Sharks)
14 N Walker (Ospreys)
13 N De Luca (Edinburgh)
12 A Henderson (Glasgow)
11 S Webster (Edinburgh)
10 D Parks (Glasgow Warriors)
9 M Blair (Edinburgh)
1 A Jacobsen (Edinburgh)
2 R Ford (Edinburgh)
3 E Murray (Northampton Saints)
4 N Hines (Perpignan)
5 J Hamilton (Leicester Tigers)
6 J White (Sale Sharks, captain)
7 J Barclay (Glasgow)
8 D Callam (Edinburgh)

Replacements: F Thomson (Glasgow), G Kerr (Edinburgh), S MacLeod (Llanelli Scarlets), K Brown (Glasgow), C Cusiter (Perpignan), C Paterson (Gloucester), H Southwell (Edinburgh).

Wales line-up at Twickenham

WALES
15 Lee Byrne (Ospreys)
14 Shane Williams (Ospreys)
13 Sonny Parker (Ospreys)
12 Gavin Henson (Ospreys)

11 Mark Jones (Scarlets)
10 James Hook (Ospreys)
9 Mike Phillips (Ospreys)
1 Duncan Jones (Ospreys)
2 Huw Bennett (Ospreys)
3 Adam Jones (Ospreys)
4 Ian Gough (Ospreys)
5 Alun Wyn Jones (Ospreys)
6 Jonathan Thomas (Ospreys)
7 Martyn Williams (Blues)
8 Ryan Jones (capt, Ospreys)

Replacements: Matthew Rees (Scarlets), Gethin Jenkins (Blues), Ian Evans (Ospreys), Alix Popham (Scarlets), Gareth Cooper (Gloucester), Stephen Jones (Scarlets), Tom Shanklin (Blues).

England line-up v Wales

ENGLAND
15 Balshaw
14 Sackey
13 Tindall
12 Flood
11 Strettle
10 Wilkinson
9 Gomarsall
1 Sheridan
2 Regan
3 Vickery
4 Shaw
5 Borthwick
6 Haskell
7 Moody
8 Narraway

Replacements: Mears, Stevens, Kay, Rees, Wigglesworth, Cipriani, Vainikolo.

Italy line-up at Croke Park

ITALY
15 Bortolussi (Montpellier)
14 Robertson (Viadana)
13 Canale (Clermont Auvergne)
12 Mi Bergamasco (Stade Fr)
11 Canavosio (Castres)
10 Masi (Biarritz)
9 Travagli (Overmach Parma)
1 Lo Cicero (Racing Metro)
2 Ghiraldini (Calvisano)
3 Castrogiovanni (Leicester)
4 Dellape (Biarritz)
5 Del Fava (Ulster)
6 Sole (Viadana)
7 Ma Bergamasco (Stade Fr)
8 Parisse (Stade Fr, capt)

Replacements: Festuccia (Racing Metro), Perugini (Toulouse), Nieto (Gloucester), Reato (Rovigo), Zanni (Calvisano), Marcato (Treviso), Galon (Overmach Parma).

Ireland line-up v Italy

IRELAND
15 G Dempsey (Leinster)
14 A Trimble (Ulster)
13 B O’Driscoll (Leinster, captain)
12 G D’Arcy (Leinster)
11 G Murphy (Leicester)
10 R O’Gara (Munster)
9 E Reddan (Wasps)
1 M Horan (Munster)
2 R Best (Ulster)
3 J Hayes (Munster)
4 D O’Callaghan (Munster)
5 M O’Kelly (Leinster)
6 S Easterby (Llanelli)
7 D Wallace (Munster)
8 D Leamy (Munster)

Replacements: B Jackman (Leinster), T Buckley (Munster), M O’Driscoll (Munster), J Heaslip (Leinster), P Stringer (Munster), P Wallace (Ulster), R Kearney (Leinster).

Six Nations Predictions

Here's my predictions for the 2008 Six Nations Championship. I'm guessing they'll provoke a bit of a reaction from some. Just for comparison, here's what the BBC pundits have to say - and it's nothing like mine. Enjoy, and let the battle commence!

France

With a new coach and a raft of retirements, France go into this championship as a bit of an unknown quantity. With six uncapped players, no fewer than ELEVEN of the French World Cup squad have been dropped, including Sebastien Chabal, Jerome Thion, Clement Poitrenaud, Imanol Harinordoquy, Pierre Mignoni, David Marty, Lionel Beauxis, Yannick Nyanga and Remy Martin. The experience of Raphael Ibanez, Fabien Pelous, Christophe Dominici and Serge Betsen is lost through their retirements and lock Lionel Nallet will captain the side.

Starting away from home against Scotland will provide a tough test for this new side, but if they come through that unscathed home games against Ireland, England and Italy follow. Finishing in the Millennium against Wales to win a third successive Six Nations title is a real possibility, and while the side lacks experience and looks to rebound from three defeats at the World Cup – the worst ever showing by a host nation – a Grand Slam looks a real possibility given their schedule.
Predicted finish: 1st

Scotland

Scotland were the toughest side to predict going into this championship, and I genuinely believe they have the potential to do anything this year – from winning a Grand Slam to a second consecutive wooden spoon. What is clear though, is that this is the best Scottish squad assembled since the expansion of the championship in 2000. With only four new caps and less injuries than in previous seasons, coupled with the experience of a World Cup quarter-final Scotland go into the championship with a lot of confidence, the best place kicker in the world, a pack which held its own against the mighty Pumas and (finally) a bit of flair in the backs with the inclusion of Nick De Luca and Rory Lamont, there is a lot of potential in this side.

What is also clear is that the schedule favours Scotland too. Playing France at home in their opening fixture before the French find a rhythm is a bonus, although I think France will still edge that contest. A trip to Cardiff follows, where Scott Murray’s red card dented their hopes two years ago. Croke Park is the venue in Dublin for their third match, which may prove useful in lifting the Landsdowne jinx before a Calcutta Cup clash at Murrayfield. I fancy them for that, and a win in Rome would be enough to secure Scotland’s highest finish since winning the final Five Nations Championship in 1999.
Predicted Finish – 2nd

England

Despite an adventure which took them from a 36-0 mauling by South Africa to a World Cup Final defeat by the same side, England are not the force they were prior to their 2003 RWC win. Stalwarts like Dallaglio, Catt, Corry and Robinson have retired, the experiment with Andy Farrell seems to have failed and full-back/ wing Josh Lewsey has been left out altogether. In their place, Ashton has picked a squad on form, and there are real questions as to whether this is a side which can challenge for the title. In come Tongan Lesley Vainikolo, Tom Croft and Danny Cipriani, with Dave Strettle returning from injury to regain his place in the squad.

While I don’t see any problem for them at home to Wales or away to Italy, trips to Paris and even Edinburgh might pose problematic, and finishing at home against Ireland will probably decide whether England’s campaign is deemed a success or failure. I think they’ll come through that final challenge, but will end up in mid-table – by my qualification, a successful campaign on the back of a relatively new squad. But how will the media see that?
Predicted finish: 3rd

Ireland

With France and England opting for fresh blood, Ireland retain a lot of experience in their Six Nations squad. Tony Buckley, Jamie Heaslip, Bernard Jackman, Mick O'Driscoll and Robert Kearney are the new faces in a squad which includes 15 of the squad that faced Argentina in Ireland’s final World Cup match. With coach Eddie O’Sullivan under enormous pressure to get the side to perform, expect the side to come under increased media scrutiny.

With Ireland’s “Golden Generation” slowly passing its peak after a disappointing World Cup and their failure to win the Six Nations Championship despite three Triple Crowns in the past 4 years, Eddie O’Sullivan’s job is on the line and a disappointing tournament this time around will almost certainly spell the end of his tenure as coach. Starting out at home to Italy should be an opportunity to get a win on the board, followed by a tough trip to Paris. Scotland come to Croke Park next and may spring an upset after a close contest at Murrayfield last year. Wales at home will give an indication of the hunger of the side, before a trip to Twickenham might be a match too far. With only two wins, it looks like another unsuccessful tournament for the Irish.
Predicted finish – 4th

Wales

With a new coach and the disappointment of their World Cup exit to Fiji almost behind them, Wales approach the Six Nations Championship with more confidence than they may merit. With Martyn Williams returning from retirement to feature under Warren Gatland and the Welsh regions doing well in Europe, there is a mood of optimism in the Welsh camp. However, the question marks over key positions – Peel or Philips at scrum-half, Jones or Hook at fly-half, Henson, Parker or Shanklin at centre – remain unanswered. Competition for places is one thing, but when you don’t know your best side it makes consistency in tactics a tough ask.

The schedule is not kind to the Welsh either. A trip to Twickenham – where they have not won in 20 years is a tough opener which is followed by the visit of Scotland and Italy to Cardiff. Ireland are next at Croke Park, and while last year’s match was a tight affair, with home advantage the Irish should grind out a win. Wales close against France in a match which should see the World Cup hosts clinch their third successive championship.
Predicted Finish – 5th

Italy

While Italy improved no end in the 2007 championship, Italy’s early World Cup exit may have dented their confidence and set them back a wee bit. The retirement of scrum-half Alessandro Troncon – the star of last year’s victories over Scotland and Wales - who retired after the World Cup , and the absence of Roland de Marigny, Paul Griffen and Marko Stanojevic make a repeat of last year unlikely.

Led by Stade Number 8 Sergio Parisse and with the star Bergamasco brothers in the line up, they will be a dangerous opponent but one which most sides should overcome. A tough assignment in Dublin is followed by England’s visit to Rome. Italy’s best chance of a win should come at the Millennium in week three, but I think the Welsh will have too much for them. Expect France to trounce them in Paris before Scotland complete the whitewash with their visit to Rome. Without the experience of the past, the Italians will take a step backwards in this championship.
Predicted finish – 6th

2008 RBS Six Nations Championship - Fixtures

With February just around the corner & the Six Nations set to begin, I thought I'd start by including the fixture list for the championship, followed by (hopefully) a round-up of how I think the sides will perform.

2008 Six Nations Fixtures

WEEK 1
Saturday, 2 February 2008
Ireland v Italy, 14:00
England v Wales, 16:30
Sunday, 3 February 2008
Scotland v France, 15:00

WEEK 2
Saturday, 9 February 2008
Wales v Scotland, 14:00
France v Ireland, 16:00
Sunday, 10 February 2008
Italy v England, 14:30

WEEK 3
Saturday, 23 February 2008
Wales v Italy, 15:00
Ireland v Scotland, 17:00
France v England, 20:00

WEEK 4
Saturday, 8 March 2008
Ireland v Wales, 13:15
Scotland v England, 15:15
Sunday, 9 March 2008
France v Italy, 15:00

WEEK 5
Saturday, 15 March 2008
Italy v Scotland, 13:00
England v Ireland, 15:00
Wales v France, 17:00